How Technology and Geopolitics are Transforming Global Energy Strategies

Energy has long been a symbol of hard power. It has been used as a tool of coercion, a lever to shape alliances, and a means of extracting strategic concessions. As the foundation of industrial output, control over energy has historically translated into economic and geopolitical influence.

While disparities between resource-rich and resource-poor nations persist, today’s energy landscape is no longer defined primarily by supply manipulation, price shocks, or embargoes. Instead, strategic advantage and national power are increasingly determined by who controls the minerals, technologies, and manufacturing capacity underpinning the next phase of industrial transformation. Critical minerals and technological capabilities are now reshaping geopolitical alignments and redefining how countries and companies plan their strategic futures.

The Role of Technology in Energy Transformation

It’s ‘As Important as Electricity’

Technology has become a central driver of the global economy and global energy strategy. Founder, Jensen Huang of Nvidia, believes that innovations like AI are the single most important industrial revolution in Human History, on par with harnessing electricity.

Innovations in microgrids, advanced manufacturing, energy storage, and digital systems are transforming the way energy is produced, distributed, and consumed. At the same time, the convergence of energy technology, artificial intelligence, and defence systems has created new supply chains that introduce both strategic advantages and new vulnerabilities.

Technological innovation has already altered global trade balances. The deployment of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing enabled the United States to shift from importing 46% of its oil and natural gas needs in 2000 to becoming a net exporter today. Similarly, advances in battery technology, electric vehicles (EVs), and manufacturing efficiency enabled China’s oil imports to be approximately 8% lower in 2024 than they would have been otherwise.

Many of these competitive technologies depend on the mining and refining of critical minerals, resources that are often concentrated in fragile or geopolitically contested regions. The pursuit of lithium in Chile (31% of global reserves), cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo (55% of global reserves), and nickel in Indonesia (42% of global reserves) is reshaping trade relationships, investment flows, and diplomatic priorities. Control over these supply chains increasingly influences national energy security and industrial competitiveness.

Technology as a Catalyst for Social and Economic Change

Beyond strategy and trade, technology is also transforming energy systems at the societal level. Innovations in renewable energy, energy storage, and digital platforms are enabling new approaches to energy access, particularly in developing economies. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), when deployed as a cleaner bridge fuel and combined with renewables such as solar in hybrid systems, has reduced reliance on biomass and kerosene for cooking and heating. This shift improves air quality, health outcomes, and energy reliability.

Emerging technologies such as renewable LPG (r-LPG), produced from waste streams, offer localized and lower-carbon alternatives that complement broader energy transition efforts. In countries like South Africa, technological innovation within the LPG sector has focused on expanding infrastructure, developing local cylinder manufacturing, enhancing supply-chain management through smart storage systems, and introducing new business models such as pay-as-you-go and micro-financing. Together, these innovations support energy security, affordability, and economic inclusion while reducing dependence on coal and petroleum products.

Technology and Energy Affordability

Technology has also played a decisive role in improving energy affordability. Dramatic cost reductions in renewable energy, combined with increased grid flexibility and efficiency gains, have reshaped global energy economics. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the cost of solar photovoltaic electricity fell by more than 80% between 2010 and 2019. Similar declines have been observed in onshore wind power.

As a result, renewable energy has become cost-competitive with, and in many cases cheaper than, traditional fossil fuels. In 2024, over 90% of new utility-scale renewable projects were less expensive than new fossil fuel power plants. That same year, renewables helped avoid an estimated USD 467 billion in fossil fuel costs, reinforcing their role not only as the lowest-cost source of new power, but also as a stabilizing force in an increasingly volatile global energy system.

Technology-Enabled Energy Diversification

One of the long-standing challenges of renewable energy adoption has been managing variability in supply. Advances in energy storage technologies are now addressing this constraint. Improvements in battery systems enable excess energy generated from intermittent sources like solar and wind to be stored and deployed when needed, enhancing grid stability and resilience.

Battery innovation is accelerating rapidly, moving beyond conventional lithium-ion chemistries toward alternatives such as sodium-ion, zinc-based, and solid-state batteries. These developments are driven by demand from electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and grid-scale storage, with innovation focused on faster charging, higher energy density, improved safety, and AI-enabled lifecycle management.

Battery demand increased more than fortyfold between 2010 and 2024, while average battery prices fell by over 90%. By 2024, the global battery market was valued at approximately USD 130 billion, exceeding the combined net oil imports of Germany, France, and Italy. With electric vehicles accounting for roughly 75% of battery demand, this transformation is reshaping energy diversification strategies and redefining industrial competitiveness.

Geopolitical Shifts Impacting Energy Choices

Technology plays a significant role in unlocking global energy reserves and untapped energy sources. Technological innovation is therefore deeply intertwined with geopolitics, shaping national competitiveness and trade protection strategies. Shale, subsalt, and tar sands were once fringe energy developments that have transformed economies from net importers to net exporters. Technology now plays a central role in global power dynamics, influencing energy dominance, trade flows, investment patterns, and policy decisions.

Shale development in Argentina, centred on the massive Vaca Muerta formation, revolutionized the economy by boosting record oil/gas production, improving trade balances through increased exports, attracting investment, and driving towards energy independence. Brazil’s subsalt oil development has had a similar effect. Its subsalt oil development has significantly boosted its economy by transforming it into a major oil exporter, enhancing energy sovereignty, and creating jobs. China's renewable energy development is a massive economic engine, driving GDP growth and boosting manufacturing dominance (solar, batteries, EVs). It was the largest single country for energy patenting in 2021.

New pipelines, shipping lanes, and trade agreements are altering energy flows across borders. For instance, the expansion of Canadian Natural Gas Liquid fractionation facilities has opened trade routes to Asia. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure has also diversified gas supply routes, reducing reliance on traditional pipelines controlled by a few countries, which was the case for Europe with its dependence on Russian pipeline supplies. Resource nationalism is on the rise, where countries rich in energy resources are increasingly asserting control over their assets. This trend affects global markets by creating supply uncertainties and price volatility.

Technology is also altering energy geopolitics by reducing dependence on centralized infrastructure. Decentralized systems: off-grid solar, mini-grids, and hybrid solutions are weakening the traditional link between energy access and large-scale state-controlled networks. For countries with dispersed populations or fragile grids, these technologies reduce exposure to infrastructure sabotage, fuel import dependency, and geopolitical leverage. In this way, energy access technologies are not only development tools, but instruments of resilience and sovereignty.

Technology has expanded the range of viable energy options, from advanced hydrocarbons and large-scale renewables to decentralized and modular systems. At the same time, geopolitical realities, resource concentration, infrastructure chokepoints, supply chain control, and rising resource nationalism have imposed practical limits on how quickly and uniformly energy systems can evolve. As a result, technological innovation itself is increasingly becoming a strategic asset, protected, restricted, and, in some cases, weaponized. Capital is now being deployed where technology aligns with geopolitical constraints, delivering security, resilience, and economic value.

In this environment, energy strategy is no longer about selecting the “right” fuel, but about deploying the right technologies to build systems capable of performing across multiple, uncertain futures.

This analysis synthesizes publicly available data, policy publications, and market research from international energy agencies, industry analysts, and geopolitical institutions.